What's Happening in our Local Real Estate Markets?


 



Sue Rubin
Partner
Empire Realty Associates
Direct:(925) 837-5679
Email: Sue@SueRubin.com
Web: www.SueRubin.com

Your business and endorsements to friends, family, neighbors and associates are genuinely valued and appreciated.

DRE#01070647




 

 

July, 2010

Better News for Sellers:
Prices Starting to Trend Upward

June 2009 to July 2010

Prices UP in 6 of 8 selected communities




Local Prices

Prices have started trending up in a number of communities in the Bay Area. In our local areas, as shown above for the period from June 09 to July 10, prices increased in 5 of the 8 communities. Sales prices were UP in Danville, San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Pleasant Hill, Lafayette and Orinda. They were down in Moraga and Alamo.

In the Local Market in Detail chart below, in another comparison, you'll see the 15 surveyed communities where closed prices were up in June in 12 areas compared with June a year ago. In May, prices were up in 9 communities. In April they were up in 6 over the same period in 2009

Bay Area Stats

MDA Dataquick has reported that the median closed sales price of resale homes and condos in the SF Bay Area has risen for eight straight months. The median price rose 10.8% from April and up 20.1% in May. This median Bay Area price, however, is still 38.3% below the $665,000 peak in June/July 2007, according to Dataquick.

Why the big price jump? Government buyer incentives this spring, a sizeable number of short sales and the decline in sales of low-cost foreclosures are several factors. Another is the increase in sales of homes over $500,000 that's changed the price mix. According to Dataquick, in May, 40.7% of the homes sold in the Bay area were at $500,000 or above, up 31.3% from a year ago. May's figures were the highest since August, 2008, before the credit crisis, when 44.7% of all sales were priced $500,000 or above.

Additionally, other factors have played a part in price increases. Very low interest rates have brought out buyers. There has been some upward price pressure in some areas with lower inventories and higher demand. The higher cost areas have also seen some distress over the past year. This has caused many sellers to become more motivated and realistic about pricing and the result has been additional pending sales.

Will Prices Keep Increasing?

We can only speculate at this point. With interest rates at all-time lows and prices still way under all-time highs, the incentive is certainly there for motivated buyers to enter the real estate market. If, however, lenders decide to push a large number of distressed properties on the market, the climate could change. Supply/demand controls prices.

The summer is traditionally a slower time as potential buyers head for vacations before school resumes. However, with prices taking a step up and the incredible low interest rates, some buyers may decide now is the time to get off the fence. Of course, the economy holds the key to a lasting upturn in our local markets. Improved job figures are crucial to our housing recovery. In the meantime, our local markets are continuing to be quite active.

Wondering what our current market means for your individual situation? Don't hesitate to e-mail or call. Questions are always welcomed.

 

 

*Pending sales: homes that have gone into contract but have not yet closed escrow

All 8 Communities
Total # Pending Sales		 Dec 09 Jan10 Feb10 Mar10 Apr10 May10 June10
128 183 190 306 322 274 272

 


Best Indicator of Market Activity: PENDING SALES
*Pending sales reflect ratified contracts in each month.
 

Aug09

Sept09

Oct09

Nov09

Dec09

Jan10

Feb10

 Mar10 Apr10 May10 June10 % vs
May10		 # of *Short Sales % of Total Pendings Sales
up to $1M		 Pendings
Sales
$1M-$2		 Pendings
Sales
$2M+
Alamo 9 15 16 15

13

13

16

 16 20 25 23 -8% 3 13%

10

13

0
Danville 50 42 46 40

30

35

45

 59 50 58 42 -28% 9 21%

31

10

1
S. Ramon 64 67 72 42

29

38

51

 75 87 63 74 +17% 20 27%

65

9

0
Lafayette 24 25 19 10

9

14

13

 27 33 26 33 +27% 3 9%

16

14

3
Moraga 11 8 7 3

4

5

7

 13 11 8 12 +50% 1 8%

10

2

0
Orinda 14 15 14 15

7

9

8

 17 17 16 17 +6% 1 6%

11

6

0
P. Hill 23 30 25 16

17

20

14

 42 36 30 21 -30% 8 24%

21

0

0
W. Creek 46 37 50 41

19

49

36

 57 68 48 50 +4% 9 18%

41

9

0

Conclusions: Pending sales were up in June in San Ramon, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda and Walnut Creek over May. There were fewer pending sales in Alamo, Danville, and Pleasant Hill. You can see above that Short Sales continue to comprise a sizeable part of the market.

*Short Sale: A sale of a house in which the proceeds are less than the owner still owes on the mortgage. Some lenders will agree to accept the proceeds of a short sale and forgive the rest of what is owed. By agreeing to these terms, the lender can avoid a lengthy and costly foreclosure. Short Sales noted above are only sales that are reported to our MLS.

July 2010 Local Market In Detail
All numbers are for single-family detached homes.
Sales not reported to MLS are not included.
y-t-d: year-to-date
 


# Current
Active Listings

7/1/10 y-t-d Average
# Days on Market

7/1/10 y-t-d
# Closed Sales 		7/1/10 Average y-t-d
Closed Sales Price
  7/1/09 7/1/10 %change

July09

July10

%

July09

July10

%

July09

July10

%

Alamo

 125 104 -17% 109 72 -34% 48 78 +63% $1,359,358 $1,208,496 -11%

Blackhwk

 74 54 -27% 94 80 -15% 22 56 +155% $1,209,394 $1,102,515 -9%

Clayton

 44 61 +39% 67 48 -28% 40 56 +40% $602,616 $611,819 +2%

Concord

 145 230 +59% 42 35 -17% 549 486 -11% $310,453 $339,349 +9%

Danville

 194 151 -22% 72 43 -40% 160 253 +58% $919,790 $920,874 +0.1%

Dublin

 42 72 +71% 52 25 -52% 160 166 +4% $616,051 $632,607 +3%

Lafayette

 109 119 +9% 59 46 -22% 69 122 +77% $1,054,866 $1,105,592 +5%

Livermore

 174 187 +7% 43 32 -26% 383 426 +11% $460,183 $522,289 +13%

Martinez

 111 141 +27% 56 52 -7% 172 167 -3% $354,807 $377,723 +6%

Moraga

 35 40 +14% 31 34 +10% 22 48 +118% $1,051,472 $906,687 -14%

Orinda

 83 91 +10% 45 67 +49% 65 66 +2% $1,020,200 $1,094,709 +7%

Pleasant Hill

 56 61 +9% 51 39 -24% 103 117 +14% $455,204 $479,838 +5%

Pleasanton

 203 193 -5% 67 34 -49% 212 300 +42% $877,269 $896,004 +2%

San Ramon

 144 125 -13% 53 29 -45% 286 321 +12% $733,636 $77,7674 +6%

WalnutCreek

 145 160 +10% 56 39 -30% 177 235 +33% $730,962 $739,413 +1%


Conclusions: Inventory increased in 10 communities, and declined in 5. Days on the market declined significantly in 13 of the 15 communities surveyed. The number of closed sales increased in 13 communities. Closed sales prices increased in 12 communities.

 

Market Snapshot, Selected Communities:

1st Half, 2010
Average year-to-date
Closed Sales Prices
(Average prices at the beginning of the year may reflect only a few sales.)

Alamo



78 Closed Sales 2010 y-t-d SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $1,208,496
Average Days on the Market: 72

_______

Danville

 

253 Closed Sales 2010 y-t-d SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $920,874
Average Days on the Market: 43

_______

San Ramon

 

321 Closed Sales 2010 y-t-d SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $777,674
Average Days on the Market: 29


_______

Walnut Creek


235 Closed Sales 2010 y-t-d SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $739,413
Average Days on the Market: 39

_______

Pleasant Hill

117 Closed Sales 2010 y-t-d SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $479,838
Average Days on the Market: 39

_______

Pleasanton


300 Closed Sales 2010 y-t-d SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $896,004
Average Days on the Market: 34

_______


 

 


Closed Sales Prices 2005-2010 Single Family Detached Homes


Price averages at the beginning of the year are usually based on so few sales that they are mostly meaningless.
Those numbers represent most of the "dips" seen above in the monthly figures.
Prices in later months are much more representative of actual price trends.

Community Links (Sales History Archive)
Sold prices since 2003, market price peaks, numbers of closed sales, days on the market

Data above copyright© Contra Costa Association of Realtors®, 2010. Information is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed and is intended only as a general market snapshot. MLS data is fluid and changes daily as new data is input. MLS data sometimes has reporting errors and there may be some inaccuracies in calculations both from MLS and in preparing this report. Sales NOT reported to our Multiple Listing Service are not included. The accuracy of information on any linked web sites has not been verified and is not guaranteed. This market compilation copyright© www.ourremarket.com, 2010. All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission.