“The real issue for 2009 is the availability of credit,
particularly at the high end of the market, which has held up fairly
well so far but is vulnerable when you combine a weakening economy and
financing that is at a premium,” according to California Assn. of
Realtors® Vice President and
Chief Economist, Leslie Appleton-Young. Local lenders have indicated
there is still financing available for qualified buyers, but it may be
2010 before the jumbo loan market really opens up again.
Faint but growing signs
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, recently stated,“For the past few months
we’ve seen faint but growing signs that would normally suggest many
markets are nearing price stabilization. But we’ll need to see those
vital signs continue to strengthen into the fall. Job losses and
historically high foreclosure levels continue to pose serious threats to
housing stability." He also said that, "In much of the Bay Area there’s
the added problem of ‘jumbo’ loan financing still being relatively
expensive and, for many, hard to get. A solution to that problem will no
doubt be part of the kindling that eventually re-ignites the Bay
Area’s high-end sales.”
Spotlight:
May High End "Pending Sales"
Lafayette and Alamo
Here's a look at two
communities with average closed sales prices that are among the highest in our local
market area. They are good examples of our upper end local markets.
These charts show pending sales, homes that just have just gone into
contract during May 09.
Note the diversity of
these markets. Some homes are selling in less than a week (most
likely well priced, very desirable homes), while others have spent
months on the market before a sale. Additionally, a number have
experienced significant price reductions before securing a buyer.
Lafayette
MAY 09
PENDING SALES
$1 M+
Price Range: $1 Million
plus homes that went into to escrow during May 09
Original
List Price
Current
List Price
% change
Days on Market
$1,085,000
$1,085,000
0
7 days
$1,199,000
$1,199,000
0
20 days
$1,235,000
$1,235,000
0
5 days
$1,325,550
$1,249,000
-6%
90 days
$1,299,000
$1,249,000
-4%
48 days
$1,450,000
$1,350,000
-7%
78 days
$1,395,000
$1,395,000
0
53 days
$1,595,000
$1,595,000
0
18 days
$1,888,000
$1,695,000
-10%
127 days
$2,049,000
$1,795,000
-12%
84 days
Conclusions: Lafayette has
done better than many communities in this market. The numbers
above do show that sellers must price to the market or be prepared to
sit. Desirable properties, priced properly, can still sell quickly.
Looking Back in History
Million Dollar Sales
Lafayette
year
# of sales
average sales
price
**average
days on market
2006
165
$1,319,936
20
2007
169
$1,294,061
33
2008
120
$1,257.261
46
*2009
17
$1,046,460
62
**the method of calculating DOM has changed in
recent years so this number is somewhat inaccurate, *y-t-d 2009
Conclusions: The numbers show the
decrease in the numbers of closed sales since the price peak in
Lafayette in 2006. Prices held pretty well in Lafayette in
comparison with other local communities until this fall. Since then
there has been continued softening. The upper end credit crunch that began in Sept. 07,
caused fewer buyers to be able to obtain jumbo financing. Then, with the
financial melt down last fall and recession, fewer buyers
have been able to enter the market. As the recession eventually comes to an end,
the job market improves and jumbo financing becomes more affordable and
available, this segment of the market will then rebound.
Alamo
MAY 09
PENDING SALES
$1 M+
Price Range: $1 Million
plus homes that went into to escrow during May 09
Original
List Price
Current
List Price
% change
Days on Market
$1,120,000
$1,089,000
-3%
69 days
$1,295,000
$1,095,000
-15%
102 days
$1,210,000
$1,135,000
-6%
46 days
$1,300,000
$1,139,000
-1%
181 days*
$1,125,000
$1,145,000
-2%
10 days
$1,179,000
$1,159,000
-2%
119 days*
$1,799,950
$1,299,000
-28%
376 days
$1,390,000
$1,299,000
-7%
49 days
$1,300,000
$1,300,000
-0
63 days
$1,549,000
$1,445,000
-7%
41 days
$1,698,888
$1,475,000
-13%
166 days
$1,575,000
$1,575,000
-0
43 days
$1,650,000
$1,650,000
-0
51 days
$2,075,990
$1,825,990
-12%
164 days
$1,895,000
$1,895,000
-0
6 days
$2,160,000
$1,950,000
-10%
80 days
$2,345,000
$2,345,000
-0
80 days**
$2,885,000
$2,499,000
-13%
310 days
$3,595,000
$2,695,000
-25%
344 days
$4,395,000
$3,500,000
-20%
168 days
$2,350,000
$1,038,000
-56%
324 days
*
REO (foreclosure) ** Short Sale
Conclusions: Alamo presents a
somewhat different market than Lafayette. There continues to be more new
construction in Alamo. Anxious builders have been dealing in order to move
their inventory. There are also some foreclosures in the mix. This
market, as in Lafayette, shows significant diversity. Some outstanding
homes are selling quickly and others take much longer. Pricing is such a
crucial factor. Some sellers seem still to be hoping for 2006 prices in
2009. Lastly, there are definitely bargains out there for astute, qualified, patient
buyers.
Looking
Back in History
Million Dollar Sales
Alamo
year
# of sales
average sales
price
**average
days on market
2006
151
$1,710,182
23
2007
150
$1,687,335
37
2008
105
$1,551,877
74
*2009
29
$1,387,411
117
**the method of
calculating DOM has changed in
recent years so this number is
somewhat inaccurate, *y-t-d 2009
Conclusions: The
numbers clearly show the significant decrease in the numbers of closed
sales since the 2006 price peak in Alamo. The credit crunch that
began in Sept. 07, caused fewer buyers to be able to obtain jumbo
financing. Then, as in Lafayette, because of the financial melt down last fall and the current
recession, fewer buyers have been able to enter the market. As the
recession eventually comes to an end, the job market improves and jumbo financing
becomes more affordable and available, this segment of the market will
then rebound.
______
Closed Sales Reported to CCAR MLS
Selected Communities
Single Family Detached
Homes
Active
Listings
1st of June
Closed Sales
Year-to-Date
1st of June
AVERAGE
Closed Sales Prices
y-t-d 1st of June
Area
6/08
6/09
%
6/08
6/09
%
Dec.
2008
ytd 2009
%
DOM
Alamo
117
133
+14%
44
33
-25%
$1,547,192
$1,387,516
-10%
121
Blackhawk
78
87
+12%
19
14
-26%
$1,371,575
$1,145,057
-17%
103
Clayton
51
45
-12%
39
28
-28%
$658,474
$606,487
-8%
72
Concord
472
170
-64%
295
424
+44%
$380,181
$168,481
-56%
56
Danville
213
200
-6%
124
107
-14%
$1,029,594
$900,521
-13%
78
Dublin
123
42
-65%
81
117
+44%
$668,233
$611,988
-8%
62
Lafayette
119
121
+2%
84
48
-43%
$1,257,261
$1,055,657
-16%
64
Livermore
381
205
-46%
247
287
+16%
$549,622
$445,984
-19%
53
Martinez
140
109
-22%
88
125
+42%
$431,739
$367,184
-15%
56
Moraga
22
38
+73%
32
16
-50%
$1,100,763
$1,048,250
-5%
37
Orinda
74
94
+24%
52
48
-8%
$1,222,571
$981,647
-20%
84
P. Hill
99
62
-37%
74
80
+8%
$545,507
$462,432
-15%
52
Pleasanton
240
222
-8%
159
135
-15%
$1,011,740
$925,614
-9%
77
S. Ramon
243
168
-31%
201
184
-8%
$819,140
$711,057
-13%
52
W. Creek
196
145
-26%
130
129
-1%
$842,513
$739,311
-12%
60
Conclusions: Inventory is way down in
many of the lower price range communities. This may eventually
lead to more demand than supply and prices will begin to
increase.
The average closed sales prices continue to decline. It's
important to note that this decline can be somewhat misleading.
The reason is that the lower end of the market comprises so many
more sales than the upper end and therefore skews the averages
and doesn't reflect a balance of sales between both of those
markets. The upper end has definitely moved down but the
averages don't tell the whole story. When the upper end of the
market returns in full force, average sales prices may increase
significantly.
The numbers of closed sales are off significantly compared to
last year at this time in many of the higher priced communities.
Sales continue to be hot in the lower end price categories
because prices have dropped so much. Bargain hunters, investors,
and first time buyers have been very active.
______________
Snapshot:
Alamo, Danville, San
Ramon
Snapshot:
Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda
_______
Charts of Monthly
Average
Sales Prices for 2003-2009
Single Family Detached Homes
Click on the links below for individual
charts for each community and summary sales data. You'll see
average sales prices
over a number of
years including PEAK
price years for each
community.
