JUNE, 2009 The real issue in our upper-end markets:  credit availability   “The real issue for 2009 is the availability of credit, particularly at the high end of the market, which has held up fairly well so far but is vulnerable when you combine a weakening economy and financing that is at a premium,” according to California Assn. of Realtors® Vice President and Chief Economist, Leslie Appleton-Young. Local lenders have indicated there is still financing available for qualified buyers, but it may be 2010 before the jumbo loan market really opens up again.                                                            Faint but growing signs John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, recently stated, “For the past few months we’ve seen faint but growing signs that would normally suggest many markets are nearing price stabilization. But we’ll need to see those vital signs continue to strengthen into the fall. Job losses and historically high foreclosure levels continue to pose serious threats to housing stability." He also said that, "In much of the Bay Area there’s the added problem of ‘jumbo’ loan financing still being relatively expensive and, for many, hard to get. A solution to that problem will no doubt be part of the kindling that eventually re-ignites the Bay Area’s high-end sales.” Spotlight: May High End "Pending Sales" Lafayette and Alamo Here's a look at two communities with average closed sales prices that are among the highest in our local market area. They are good examples of our upper end local markets. These charts show pending sales, homes that just have just gone into contract during May 09. Note the diversity of these markets. Some homes are selling in less than a week (most likely well priced, very desirable homes), while others have spent months on the market before a sale.  Additionally, a number have experienced significant price reductions before securing a buyer. Lafayette   MAY 09 PENDING SALES $1 M+ Price Range: $1 Million plus homes that went into to escrow during May 09 Original List Price Current List Price % change Days on Market $1,085,000 $1,085,000 0 7 days $1,199,000 $1,199,000 0 20 days $1,235,000 $1,235,000 0 5 days $1,325,550 $1,249,000 -6% 90 days $1,299,000 $1,249,000 -4% 48 days $1,450,000 $1,350,000 -7% 78 days $1,395,000 $1,395,000 0 53 days $1,595,000 $1,595,000 0 18 days $1,888,000 $1,695,000 -10% 127 days $2,049,000 $1,795,000 -12% 84 days Conclusions: Lafayette has done better than many communities in this market. The numbers above do show that sellers must price to the market or be prepared to sit. Desirable properties, priced properly, can still sell quickly.   Looking Back in History Million Dollar Sales   Lafayette year # of sales average sales price **average days on market 2006 165 $1,319,936 20 2007 169 $1,294,061 33 2008 120 $1,257.261 46 *2009 17 $1,046,460 62 **the method of calculating DOM has changed in recent years so this number is somewhat inaccurate, *y-t-d 2009 Conclusions: The numbers show the decrease in the numbers of closed sales since the price peak in Lafayette in 2006.  Prices held pretty well in Lafayette in comparison with other local communities until this fall. Since then there has been continued softening. The upper end credit crunch that began in Sept. 07, caused fewer buyers to be able to obtain jumbo financing. Then, with the financial melt down last fall and recession, fewer buyers have been able to enter the market. As the recession eventually comes to an end, the job market improves and jumbo financing becomes more affordable and available, this segment of the market will then rebound.   Alamo MAY 09 PENDING SALES $1 M+ Price Range: $1 Million plus homes that went into to escrow during May 09   Original List Price Current List Price % change Days on Market $1,120,000 $1,189,000 -6% 69 days $1,095,000 $1,295,000 -18% 102 days $1,135,000 $1,210,000 -7% 46 days $1,300,000 $1,139,000 -1% 181 days* $1,145,000 $1,125,000 -2% 10 days $1,179,000 $1,159,000 -2% 119 days* $1,799,950 $1,299,000 -28% 376 days $1,299,000 $1,390,000 -7% 49 days $1,300,000 $1,300,000 -0 63 days $1,549,000 $1,445,000 -7% 41 days $1,698,888 $1,475,000 -13% 166 days $1,575,000 $1,575,000 -0 43 days $1,650,000 $1,650,000 -0 51 days $2,075,990 $1,825,990 -12% 164 days $1,895,000 $1,895,000 -0 6 days $2,160,000 $1,950,000 -10% 80 days $2,345,000 $2,345,000 -0 80 days** $2,885,000 $2,499,000 -13% 310 days $3,595,000 $2,695,000 -25% 344 days $4,395,000 $3,500,000 -20% 168 days $2,350,000 $1,038,000 -56% 324 days * REO (foreclosure) ** Short Sale Conclusions: Alamo presents a somewhat different market than Lafayette. There continues to be more new construction in Alamo. Anxious builders have been dealing in order to move their inventory. There are also some foreclosures in the mix. This market, as in Lafayette, shows significant diversity. Some outstanding homes are selling quickly and others take much longer. Pricing is such a crucial factor. Some sellers seem still to be hoping for 2006 prices in 2009.  Lastly, there are definitely bargains out there for astute, qualified, patient buyers.   Looking Back in History Million Dollar Sales Alamo year # of sales average sales price **average days on market 2006 151 $1,710,182 23 2007 150 $1,687,335 37 2008 105 $1,551,877 74 *2009 29 $1,387,411 117 **the method of calculating DOM has changed in recent years so this number is somewhat inaccurate, *y-t-d 2009 Conclusions: The numbers clearly show the significant decrease in the numbers of closed sales since the 2006 price peak in Alamo. The credit crunch that began in Sept. 07, caused fewer buyers to be able to obtain jumbo financing. Then, as in Lafayette, because of the financial melt down last fall and the current recession, fewer buyers have been able to enter the market. As the recession eventually comes to an end, the job market improves and jumbo financing becomes more affordable and available, this segment of the market will then rebound.   ______ Closed Sales Reported to CCAR MLS Selected Communities Single Family Detached Homes     Active Listings 1st of June    Closed Sales Year-to-Date 1st of  June   AVERAGE Closed Sales Prices y-t-d 1st of June  Area 6/08 6/09 % 6/08    6/09   % Dec. 2008 ytd 2009 % DOM    Alamo 117 133 +14% 44 33 -25% $1,547,192 $1,387,516 -10% 121  Blackhawk 78 87 +12% 19 14 -26% $1,371,575 $1,145,057 -17% 103  Clayton 51 45 -12% 39 28 -28% $658,474 $606,487 -8% 72  Concord 472 170 -64% 295 424 +44% $380,181 $168,481 -56% 56  Danville 213 200 -6% 124 107 -14% $1,029,594 $900,521 -13% 78  Dublin 123 42 -65% 81 117 +44% $668,233 $611,988 -8% 62  Lafayette 119 121 +2% 84 48 -43% $1,257,261 $1,055,657 -16% 64  Livermore 381 205 -46% 247 287 +16% $549,622 $445,984 -19% 53  Martinez 140 109 -22% 88 125 +42% $431,739 $367,184 -15% 56  Moraga 22 38 +73% 32 16 -50% $1,100,763 $1,048,250 -5% 37 Orinda 74 94 +24% 52 48 -8% $1,222,571 $981,647 -20% 84 P. Hill 99 62 -37% 74 80 +8% $545,507 $462,432 -15% 52 Pleasanton 240 222 -8% 159 135 -15% $1,011,740 $925,614 -9% 77 S. Ramon 243 168 -31% 201 184 -8% $819,140 $711,057 -13% 52 W. Creek 196 145 -26% 130 129 -1% $842,513 $739,311 -12% 60 Conclusions: Inventory is way down in many of the lower price range communities. This may eventually lead to more demand than supply and prices will begin to increase. The average closed sales prices continue to decline. It's important to note that this decline can be somewhat misleading. The reason is that the lower end of the market comprises so many more sales than the upper end and therefore skews the averages and doesn't reflect a balance of sales between both of those markets. The upper end has definitely moved down but the averages don't tell the whole story. When the upper end of the market returns in full force, average sales prices may increase significantly. The numbers of closed sales are off significantly compared to last year at this time in many of the higher priced communities. Sales continue to be hot in the lower end price categories because prices have dropped so much. Bargain hunters, investors, and first time buyers have been very active.     ______________     Snapshot: Alamo, Danville, San Ramon       Snapshot: Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda     _______   Charts of Monthly Average Sales Prices for 2003-2009 Single Family Detached Homes Click on the links below for individual charts for each community and summary sales data. You'll see average sales prices over a number of years including PEAK price years for each community.   Alamo Blackhawk Danville San Ramon Lafayette Moraga Orinda Walnut Creek Clayton Pleasant Hill Martinez Concord Dublin Pleasanton Data above copyright© Contra Costa Association of Realtors®, 2006-2009. Information is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed and is intended only as a general market snapshot. MLS data sometimes has reporting errors and there may be some inaccuracies in calculations both from MLS and in preparing this report. MLS data is also fluid and changes daily as new data is input. Sales not reported to our MLS are not included. Information contained on linked websites cannot be guaranteed as to accuracy or correctness and should be verified independently. This market compilation copyright© innercircleliving.com, www.ourremarket.com, 2009. All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission.         June Nye-Nebel, Larry Nebel   and Jan Sullivan Ramsey                                                Primary Phone: 877-689-3267                                                Business direct: 925-791-2532                                                   Business main: 925-314-1111                           Cell Phone: 925-270-5244 Alain Pinel Real Estate      588 Danville Boulevard Danville, CA 94526 E-mail: larryhn@alco.com Web: www.alco.com