What's Happening in our Local Real Estate Markets?

Judy Dickey

Judy Dickey,
CRS, e-PRO

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Real Estate Broker
DRE# #00879260

Certified Residential Specialist

Buyer/Seller Coach

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Email:
judy@judydickey.com
Web:
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March, 2010

Market U-Turn:

Locally, 50% fewer homes
available on market than last year

Our spring "prime-time" season is just starting to bloom and we are seeing glimpses of potential market trends on the horizon. March should see inventory gradually building, but in our 15 surveyed local communities, inventories are averaging 50% of what they were last year on March 1. As we move into March, some of the lower inventories are now showing increases. San Ramon, for example, showed 54 actives on March 1, and as of March 8 now shows 82 active listings.

Supply and demand are most always a predictor of pricing. If the supply is low, competition for homes increases and multiple offers and price increases usually follow. About 44% of closed sales in the greater Danville area during Jan. and Feb. went over asking price or at asking. In Lamorinda, about 20% went for over asking or at asking. For sellers needing to make a move, conditions seem to be much better than last year at this time. For buyers, this continues to look like a very good time to buy, when you consider pricing levels and low interest rates.

On an average, pending sales were up about 30% in the greater Danville area in February as compared to January, 2010. In Lamorinda, pendings were about the same as January, 2010. In Pleasant Hill and Walnut Creek, there weren't as many pending sales in February as in January. In those two communities, sales may indicate that the market has lost some of the demand that it had built up in the second half of last year. Activity may further pick up as procrastinators make a choice before the end of April's tax credit deadline.

Everyone continues to wonder when our local markets will return to "normal." There are lots of prognosticators out there. No one knows for sure, of course. However, Warren Buffet recently wrote on Feb. 27, 2010, in an annual letter to stockholders at Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. that, “Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us. Prices will remain far below ‘bubble’ levels, of course, but for every seller or lender hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means.”

No matter how market conditions evolve as we move through spring, there are some givens. One is the need for appropriate pricing. Overpriced homes will likely just sit. The same goes for homes not properly prepared for sale. It's one thing if a home is being sold as a "fixer " or if sellers are unable financially to spruce up the property prior to sale. However, for the seller who is not under major financial constraints, the money spent preparing the house for sale, will bring buyers faster and usually the buyers will be willing to pay more than for a home with a long list of work waiting.

Best Indicator of Market Activity: PENDING SALES
*Pending sales reflect ratified contracts in February, 2010, with a buyer but the sales have not yet closed escrow.
 

Aug09

Sept09

Oct09

Nov09

Dec09
Jan10

Feb10
Pendings Under $1M
Over $1M
Alamo
9
15
16
15

13

13

17

10

7
Danville
50
42
46
40

30

35

45

35

10
S. Ramon
64
67
72
42

29

38

51

42

9
Lafayette
24
25
19
10

9

14

13

10

3
Moraga
11
8
7
3

4

5

7

6

1
Orinda
14
15
14
15

7

9

8

4

4
P. Hill
23
30
25
16

17

20

14

14

0
W. Creek
46
37
50
41

19

49

36

35

1

Conclusions: Pending sales were up significantly over January numbers in Alamo, Danville, and San Ramon. The numbers remained about the same in Lamorinda. In Pleasant Hill and Walnut Creek, they were lower than in January. Sales under one million predominate but there are buyers also buying in the million plus ranges.

 

March 2010 Local Market In Detail
All numbers are for single-family detached homes.
Sales not reported to MLS are not included.
y-t-d: year-to-date
 


# Current
Active Listings

3/1/10 y-t-d Average
# Days on Market

3/1/10 y-t-d
# Closed Sales 		3/1/10 Average y-t-d
Closed Sales Price (prices early in the year usually don't reflect trends. Accuracy increases as year goes on.)
  3/1/09 3/1/10 %change

Mar09

Mar10

%

Mar09

Mar10

%

Mar 09

Mar 10

%
Alamo 106 84 -21% 121 100 -17% 16 19 +19% $1,531,214 $1,067,442 -30%
Blackhwk 64 42 -34% 119 236 +98% 6 6 nc $1,216,500 $937,000 -23%
Clayton 54 21 -61% 67 64 -4% 7 16 +129% $654,021 $623,883 -5%
Concord 269 111 -59% 43 35 -19% 167 121 -28% $294,802 $352,860 +20%
Danville 187 92 -51% 81 56 +31% 26 41 +58% $972,264 $889,276 -9%
Dublin 92 26 -72% 68 37 -46% 34 37 +9% $600,538 $595,697 -1%
Lafayette 92 62 -33% 56 71 +27% 12 20 +67% $1,380,000 $1,056,447 -23%
Livermore 262 129 -51% 58 35 -40% 100 96 -4% $405,458 $550,534 +36%
Martinez 121 98 -19% 46 54 +17% 50 36 -28% $376,133 $345,376 -8%
Moraga 29 21 -28% 15 44 +193% 2 8 +300% $1,055,000 $867,000 -18%
Orinda 59 31 -47% 47 75 +60% 12 16 +33% $977,209 $1,029,875 +5%
Pleasant Hill 61 40

-34%

 63 38 -40% 24 21 -13% $473,868 $449,919 -5%
Pleasanton 222 92 -59% 82 42 -49% 40 67 +68% $928,886 $875,198 -6%
San Ramon 234 54 -77% 57 32 -44% 52 74 +42% $687,688 $778,004 +13%
WalnutCreek 133 84 -37% 79 49 -38% 40 40 nc $721,299 $732,473 +2%


Conclusions: Looking at active listings, March 1, 2009 vs. March 1, 2010, there was an average 46% decline in numbers of homes for sale. The biggest inventory declines look like they are mostly in the communities with the lowest average sales prices. Days on market were a mixed bag: 9 communities had less days on market, while 6 had increased market time. Numbers of closed sales increased in 9 communities, decreased in 4 and remained the same in 2. The communities with declines in numbers of sales were generally the more affordable areas: Concord, Martinez, and Pleasant Hill. Demand may be saturated in those communities since there were such high numbers of sales there last year. Average closed sales prices are probably still rather meaningless since they only reflect two months data.

 

Market Snapshot: selected local communities:

Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, San Ramon

Jan & Feb 2009 SFR Jan & Feb 2010 SFR  
Average
Closed Sales Price		 $1,188,082 Average
Closed
Sales Price		 $945,026
Average Days
on Market		 99 Average Days on Market 86
# Closed Sales 100 # Closed Sales 140

One agent used the word, "vibrant" to describe the current market there.The number of pending sales in Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, and San Ramon were up signicantly in February over January. There have been 140 closed sales during January and February, 2010. Of those, 35 were were over 1 million. There were 54 sales that closed over asking price and 7 sales closing at asking price. Agents have reported multiple offers and demand exceeding the supply for the most desirable homes. Agents need homes for motivated buyers.

Featured Neighborhoods:
(Each month different neighborhoods will be featured)



Roundhill Country Club, Alamo

19 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $1,410,315
Average Days on the Market: 71
Average closed sales within 89% of asking price


List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Roundhill sales

 

**********

All neighborhoods, Diablo

5 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $1,510,000
Average Days on the Market: 111
Average closed sales within 80% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Diablo sales

*Diablo sales info is not tracked each month as above in other communities
because the community is so small and has only a few sales each year.




****************


Westside, Danville


28 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $1,100,344
Average Days on the Market: 65
Average closed sales within 89% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Chart Westside Danville Sales

*$0.00 represents sales price was not reported


**************


Bridges, San Ramon

43 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $980,508
Average Days on the Market: 96
Average closed sales within 87% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Bridges Bridges



**********

Walnut Creek

Jan & Feb 2009 SFR Jan & Feb 2010  
Average
Closed Sales Price		 $721,299 Average
Closed
Sales Price		 $732,473
Average Days
on Market		 79 Average
Days on Market		 49
# Closed Sales 40 # Closed
Sales		 40 NC

Featured Neighborhood:

Parkmead Area, Walnut Creek

14 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $692,142
Average Days on the Market: 63
Average closed sales within 92% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Parkmead

**********

Pleasant Hill

Jan & Feb 2009 SFR Jan & Feb 2010  
Average
Closed Sales Price		 $473,868 Average
Closed
Sales Price		 $449,919
Average Days
on Market		 63 Average
Days on Market		 38
# Closed Sales 24 # Closed
Sales		 21

Featured Neighborhood:

Poet's Corner, Pleasant Hill

19 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $539,001
Average Days on the Market: 59
Average closed sales prices within 96% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Poets Corner

**********

Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda

Jan & Feb 2009 SFR Jan & Feb 2010  
Average
Closed Sales Price		 $1,160,660 Average
Closed
Sales Price		 $1,012,339
Average Days
on Market		 49 Average Days on Market 68
# Closed Sales 26 # Closed Sales 44

The number of pending sales in February, 2010, in Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda, were nearly the same as in January, 2010. There have been 44 closed sales in Lamorinda during January and February, 2010 compared with 26 in Jan-Feb. 2009 or a 59% increase. Of the 2010 sales, 27 were under $1 million, 17 were over 1 million. There were 7 sales that closed over asking price and 2 sales closing at asking price. Activity here is picking up nicely. It's definitely not yet a seller's market, but conditions have improved for sellers and continue to be good for buyers. Agents note a shortage of well-priced, desirable homes for buyers.

 

  Featured Neighborhoods:

Burton Valley, Lafayette

21 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $1,026,190
Average Days on the Market: 57
Average closed sales prices within 93% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Burton Vallehy

*************


Sanders Ranch, Moraga

5 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $1,249,000
Average Days on the Market: 72
Average closed sales prices within 89% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Sanders Ranch

************

Country Club area, Orinda

25 Closed Sales 2009 SFR Detached Homes
Average Sales Price: $1,366,458
Average Days on the Market: 66
Average closed sales prices within 90% of asking price

List Price vs Closed Sales Price 2009

Orinda Country Club

*$0.00 represents sales price was not reported


Closed Sales Prices 2005-2010 Single Family Detached Homes


chart
Price averages at the beginning of the year are usually based on so few sales that they are mostly meaningless. Those number represent most of the "dips" seen above in the monthly figures. Prices in the second half of the year are much more representative of actual price trends.

Community Links (Sales History Archive)
Sold prices since 2003, market price peaks, numbers of closed sales, days on the market

Data above copyright© Contra Costa Association of Realtors®, 2006-2010. Information is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed and is intended only as a general market snapshot. MLS data is fluid and changes daily as new data is input.MLS data sometimes has reporting errors and there may be some inaccuracies in calculations both from MLS and in preparing this report. Sales not reported to our Multiple Listing Service are not included. The accuracy of information on any linked web sites has not been verified and is not guaranteed. This market compilation copyright© www.ourremarket.com, 2010. All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission.